Weeks after the start of her government, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is giving signs that she’ll come down on the side of the US over China if she’s forced to choose.
Whether that’s enough to prevent Donald Trump from sweeping her up in the punitive tariffs he’s threatened in his second term is another matter.
Sheinbaum is walking a fine line as she shows a willingness to cooperate with the US on topics like curbing migration and cooling relations with China, without coming across as a pushover. The reality, though, is that Washington is Mexico’s No. 1 trade partner and Beijing comes a long way behind.
Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard’s office has been working with the main companies that import from China — including electronics manufacturer Foxconn, chipmaker Intel Corp., carmakers General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV, and logistics group DHL — to identify which products could be manufactured in Mexico, according to local newspaper Reforma. The plan would also seek to keep out Malaysian, Vietnamese, and Taiwanese goods.
The question is whether Trump sees these initiatives as an outstretched hand or as part of Mexico’s response to the Biden administration’s existing line on China.
“The increasing pressure of the United States in Mexico against China is generating a lot of uncertainties for already established investments,” said Enrique Dussel Peters, the coordinator of the Center for Chinese-Mexican Studies at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. “In the short term, firms will have enormous problems to substitute for Chinese goods and parts.”
Trump has threatened to turn the planned 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement into an outright renegotiation, and slap extra tariffs on Mexico. The pact and its predecessor, NAFTA, have been a boon to Mexico’s manufacturing sector which now employs some 5 million people. But Trump wants to see Mexico close its doors to Chinese automakers who might export to the US.
TYT Newsroom
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