Japan predicts that an earthquake of up to magnitude 9 will claim about 300,000 lives

A “megaquake” and subsequent tsunami could cause as many as 298,000 deaths in Japan and damage costing up to $2 trillion, the government stated on Monday, March 31st, in a new estimate.

Japan’s economy could lose as much as $1.81 trillion in the event of a long-anticipated megaquake off its Pacific coast, which could trigger devastating tsunamis, the collapse of hundreds of buildings, and potentially kill about 300,000 people, a government report said on Monday, March 31st.

The expected economic damage of 270.3 trillion yen, or nearly half of the country’s total gross domestic product (GDP), was up sharply from the previous estimate of 214.2 trillion yen as the new estimate accounted for inflationary pressures and updated terrain and ground data which have expanded anticipated flood areas, the Cabinet Office report showed.

Japan had issued its first ever advisory in August 2024 for a potential “megaquake” along the Nankai Trough, a 900-kilometre undersea fault stretching from Shizuoka to Kyushu. The megaquake rules were drawn up after the devastating 2011 earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Tokyo’s urgency stems from the trough’s volatile tectonic activity, where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate, storing energy capable of unleashing earthquakes up to magnitude 9.1

TYT Newsroom

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